It’s Time To Pump Energy Stocks Into Your Portfolio

While gasoline prices have declined to just above the $3.00 per gallon level in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area, drivers and investors shouldn’t become complacent about modest post-summer price relief.  Prices for light sweet crude oil are again bumping up against the $100 level.  Today a barrel is trading for $96, up from a September low of $77.

Many economists predicted prices would trade around the $80 level for several months.  It appears those forecasts were low.  Interestingly, the vast majority of energy-related stocks are trading at levels that seem to endorse such forecasts.  We see a potential investment opportunity if analysts start to expect higher prices and increase their earnings’ forecasts.  This could be very good for equities, since the single most important influence on long-term prices is profits.

What could be an impetus for this to happen?  Our analysis indicates global supply and demand is continuing to tighten.  Producers just can’t seem to increase output equal to the rise in demand.  Higher utilization is coming from emerging market countries.  Some forecasters predicted that China’s economy would slow down significantly as a result of government credit restraints.  What seems to be occurring instead is a “soft landing” that will help remove excesses but bring little change in underlying energy demand.  By “soft landing” we mean Q3 GDP growth of 9% instead of 11%, a rate that is still many times that of the developed world.

It’s Time To Pump Energy Stocks Into Your PortfolioThe Chinese government’s latest 5-year plan calls for more emphasis on domestic consumption and less focus on exports.  This could reduce crude demand slightly as energy demand slows for manufacturers.  On the other hand, the country continues to experience a huge population shift from the country to cities.  The percentage of urban population has risen from just below 20% in 1980 to approximately 50% today and is currently rising at its fastest rate on record.  This should result in increased purchases of homes, vehicles, appliances, and many other items that consume energy.  The same trends apply to other Asian countries, although at different paces.

Looking at our SELECT List choices in this sector (Apache, Chevron, Devon Energy, Oceaneering International, Schlumberger, and Dynamic Energy Income Fund), one-half of them are trading at greater than a 20% discount to their yearly price highs.  All six are trading below their peaks.  In general, energy company earnings are expected to rise nicely at year-end and in 2012, despite slow growth in the overall economy.

We view the current period as a time to over-weight energy positions in investor portfolios.  They appear quite attractive in the current environment.  The sector is one our highest conviction opportunities into the first half of 2012.

For more information on energy stocks, please contact an IAM advisor.

 

Important Consumer Disclosure

This newsletter is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to Investors Asset Management, Inc.’s (“IAM”) investment advisory services and general economic market conditions.  This communication contains general information that is not suitable for everyone.  The information contained herein should not be construed as personalized investment advice, and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy.  Information presented herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and there is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this newsletter will come to pass. Individual client needs, asset allocations, and investment strategies differ based on a variety of factors.

The Select List represents all of IAM’s recommendations as of August 15, 2011.  A list of all recommendations made by IAM within the immediately preceding one year is available upon request at no charge.  IAM is under no obligation to hold any equity position for any time period, and the recommendations on the Select List are subject to change at any time without notice.  The Select List should not be considered as personalized investment advice, and the securities information contained therein should not be construed as an endorsement, solicitation, or recommendation to purchase or sell any security.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment on the Select List, or any recommendations in the future, will be profitable.

IAM is an SEC registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of Texas.  IAM and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon registered investment advisers by those states in which IAM maintains clients.  IAM may only transact business in those states in which it is noticed filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.  Any subsequent, direct communication by IAM with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.  For information pertaining to the registration status of IAM, please contact IAM or refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure web site (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov).  For additional information about IAM, including fees and services, send for our disclosure brochure as set forth on Form ADV using the contact information herein.

 

Revisiting Cloud Computing and EMC – A Socially-Responsible Company

(10/19/11) When we first authored an article titled “Are There Profits in the Clouds?” (05/15/09), the movement toward cloud computing was still in its early stages.  (Please read our article as a primer on the subject.)   We’ve since seen rapid adaption of the technology among large entities and increasing utilization by SBMs (small and medium-sized businesses).

Three IAM SELECT List companies that participate in this marketplace are IBM, Cisco Systems, and Apple Computer.  Now, we’ve added another – EMC.   EMC is the world leader in high-performance storage products and software.  Its devices help retain large amounts of data transferred over the internet and utilized in business.  The company has the broadest portfolio of products, and largest global footprint, in its category.

We’ve liked EMC over the years, owning it in the 1990s and 2000s.  In fact, we would have been wise to have retained the shares when the U.S. economy went into its Great Recession in 2008.  At the time, we saw it as a cyclical company that would suffer from slower business activity.  We let go of the shares, replacing them with defensive securities that appeared better positioned to weather the turmoil.  As it turned out, the stock did fall for 6 months following our sale, but then started to climb, rising from a low of $8 per share in November ’08 to nearly $29 earlier this year.  (The shares now trade under $23.)

Cloud computing - Revisiting Cloud ComputingEMC is extremely well-positioned in the clouds.  “Cloud computing” is basically virtualized processing, a system allowing for efficient sharing of server and storage devices via “virtual machine software.”  Aside from increased demand for storage equipment, EMC benefits from this trend through its ownership of software provider VMWare.

VMWare developed the virtualization platform most commonly used today.  You see, EMC has always been a smart and visionary company.  It saw this whole “cloud” thing developing back in 2003, when it announced the purchase of VMWare (VMW) for $625 million.  Now, as a publicly-traded NYSE company, VMW is worth $38 billion.  That’s a value increase of 60x in less than 8 years!

EMC’s 80% interest in the company is now worth over $30 billion, a figure that represents 65% of EMC’s stock capitalization.  Analysts always discount this interest when calculating EMC’s share value, but it represents a sizable interest.

EMC also holds $3.7 billion in cash versus only $450 million in debt, a value of $2.50 per share.  When you pull out VMWare and cash, EMC’s shares trade at only 5x earnings.  This is a very low price for a company that’s grown its revenues at a 17.5% clip over the past five years.

We can go on and on about EMC, but will spare you the details.  It’s targeting the ”cloud”,  generating new products, gaining market share, increasing profitability and expanding globally.  Its sales force is one of the best in the technology sector.  Leadership has done a good job envisioning the future while operating the company in a sustainable manner.

EMC has been ranked in the top 50 of Corporate Responsibility Magazine’s 100 Best Corporate Citizens list for the past three years.  It’s also made Fortune’s Most Admired Companies list and received the Disability Matters award over that time frame, among other achievements.  Just this week it was selected #13 on Newsweek’s list of 500 U.S. Green Companies.

The stock doesn’t yet pay a dividend, but the company clearly has the wherewithal to do so.  In portfolios not focused on income or low risk we’ve trimmed back Pepsico (PEP) shares and replaced them with EMC.  We favor technology names in the current environment and are attempting to build up the sector with ethically-responsible companies.

If you would like more information on EMC or have questions on any investment subject, please contact us.  Our Investment Team is eager to share SELECT investment ideas and receive your inquiries.

 

Important Consumer Disclosure

This newsletter is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to Investors Asset Management, Inc.’s (“IAM”) investment advisory services and general economic market conditions.  This communication contains general information that is not suitable for everyone.  The information contained herein should not be construed as personalized investment advice, and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy.  Information presented herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and there is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this newsletter will come to pass. Individual client needs, asset allocations, and investment strategies differ based on a variety of factors.

The Select List represents all of IAM’s recommendations as of August 15, 2011.  A list of all recommendations made by IAM within the immediately preceding one year is available upon request at no charge.  IAM is under no obligation to hold any equity position for any time period, and the recommendations on the Select List are subject to change at any time without notice.  The Select List should not be considered as personalized investment advice, and the securities information contained therein should not be construed as an endorsement, solicitation, or recommendation to purchase or sell any security.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment on the Select List, or any recommendations in the future, will be profitable.

IAM is an SEC registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of Texas.  IAM and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon registered investment advisers by those states in which IAM maintains clients.  IAM may only transact business in those states in which it is noticed filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.  Any subsequent, direct communication by IAM with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.  For information pertaining to the registration status of IAM, please contact IAM or refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure web site (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov).  For additional information about IAM, including fees and services, send for our disclosure brochure as set forth on Form ADV using the contact information herein.

 

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